G-8 preparatory meeting

Energy Scenarios
An IEA Perspective
Dolf Gielen
Senior Analyst
Energy Technology and R&D Office
Energie Trialog, Villingen, Switzerland, 20-22 June 2007 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Energy Scenarios
z The IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios
(RS, APS) for 2030 show that current trends
are not sustainable
z ETP complements the WEO and shows new
pathways to a sustainable future
z Emissions can be stabilised by 2050,
if proper energy policies are implemented
z Technology plays a key role
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA World Energy Outlook
zIEA Flagship publication
zIssued every year
zThis year (2007) focus
on China and India
zWill be released in
November
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Technology Perspectives 2006
ETP 2006 is part of the IEA
recommendations on scenarios
and strategies for the G-8
Launched June 2006 St
Petersburg G-8 meeting
ETP 2006 presents a review of a
majority of the technologies in
the energy-related sectors up to
2050
Next issue 2008 (Japan G8
summit)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
z The ETP scenarios show new pathways to a
sustainable future (< 550 ppm CO eq)
z Useful demand projections & fuel price
assumptions consistent with WEO
z Emissions can be stabilised by 2050,
if proper energy policies are implemented
z Technology plays a key role
z Model-based analysis for the world, split into 15
z Cost-based decision making
z Efforts are balanced across sectors and world
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Scenario Analysis
z Scenarios analysed:
‹ Baseline Scenario
‹ Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)
‹ TECH Plus scenario
z ACT and TECH Plus scenarios:
‹ Analyse the impact from R&D, Demonstration and
Deployment measures
‹ Incentives equivalent to 25 $/tonne CO2 for low-
carbon technologies implemented world-wide from
2030 and on
‹ Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions
for key technology areas
‹ Constant economic growth/service demand
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
GDP Growth
[USD 2005 ppp]
OECD North
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Other Asia
Middle east
Latin America
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Fuel Prices (Baseline Scenario)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Technology Assumptions
Advanced
Scenario
Renewables
H2 fuel cells
biofuels
efficiency
2.0 % p.a.
Relatively optimistic across all technology areas
improvement
Slower cost
Low Renewables
reductions
Lower public
Low Nuclear
acceptance
1.7 % p.a.
Low Efficiency
improvement
Stronger cost
Stronger cost
reductions &
TECH Plus
Stronger cost
reductions &
through for
improved
reductions
technology
feedstock
improvements
availability
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Primary Energy Supply
[mtoe/yr]
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
ACT Scenarios 2050
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Transformation
Generation
Baseline
Baseline
TECH Plus
TECH Plus: More optimistic on pr
ogress for certain key technologies
Efficiency
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
CO2 Emissions
Baseline and Map Scenarios
Developing Countries
Developing Countrie
Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while
emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Emission reduction by sectors
MAP Scenario:
Industry 10%
32 Gt CO2 reduction in 2050
Energy & feedstock effic. 6%
Materials & products effic. 1%
Pocess innovation 1%
Cogen. & steam 2%
Coal to gas 5%
Buildings 18%
Nuclear 6%
Space heating 3%
efficiency
Air conditioning 3%
Fossil fuel gen. eff 1%
Lighting, misc. 3.5%
Power Gen
Water heat., cooking 1%
Appliances 7.5%
Hydro 2%
Biomass 2%
Transport 17%
Other renew. 6%
Fuel economy
in transport 17%
CCS in fuel transformation 3%
CCS in industry 5%
Biofuels in transport 6%
Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Efficiency - A top Priority
z Improved energy efficiency saves about 15
Gt CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of current
emissions
z Improved efficiency (2%/yr) halves expected
growth in electricity demand and reduces the
need for generation capacity by a third
z In a scenario with less progress in efficiency,
CO2 emissions increase more than 20%
z Lower efficiency progress increases supply-
side investments and costs of reducing CO2
emissions
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global Electricity Generation by Fuel
ACT Scenarios 2050
Baseline 2030
Baseline 2050
Low Nuclear
Low Efficiency TECH Plus 2050
(WEO 2005)
Renewables
ACT Scenarios: Important role for CCS and strong
growth in the shares for renewables and nuclear
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity Generation
z CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a CO2
constrained world – without CCS coal-fired
generation in 2050 drops below today’s level
z By 2050 more than 5 000 TWh electricity globally
can be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS
z There is an urgent need for more R&D and for full-
scale CCS demonstration plants
z Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050
z Nuclear can gain a much more important role in
countries where it is acceptable
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Transportation Sector
z Total transport fuel demand in Baseline
scenario grows 140% (2050)
z LDV vehicle travel grows 140%
z Average Baseline LDV stock efficiency
gain 18% (annual gain half that of the past
25 years)
z 20 mb/d Baseline efficiency gains for all
z Average LDV stock efficiency gain Act
Map +40%, TechPlus +50%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Transport Sector Fuel Demand
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key Findings
z Current policies will not bring us on a path towards
a sustainable energy future
z A more sustainable energy future is possible with a
portfolio of clean and efficient technologies
z Using technologies that have an additional cost of
less than 25 $/tonne CO avoided:
‹ Global CO emissions can be returned to today's level by 2050
‹ Expected growth in both oil and electricity demand can be
z Requires urgent action to promote, develop and
deploy a full mix of energy technologies
z Collaboration between developing and developed
nations will be essential
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Thank you !
[email protected]
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Source: http://www.energietrialog.ch/cm_data/Gielen_Praesentation_1_EM_07.pdf