Attending: Diane Rupp, Keith Rupp, Frank Schwab, Teresa Schwab, Melissa Kemp. No Guests: Next Meeting: March 13, 2002, at Traci Dennis’ house at 7PM
Review Meeting Minutes from last meeting: Minutes approved as drafted with no changes. Membership Activity: Melissa reported that both of the Nancy’s (Nancy Weaver and Nancy Robinson) who attended last month as guests have expressed interest in becoming members. Nancy Weaver is on vacation at present, but if approved, would like to join at the next meeting. She also inquired about contributing enough upon joining to have the same investment stake as current partners. Nancy Robinson is also interested in joining; but will want to wait a few months, as she is transitioning from the employed to the self-employed world. Re: procedures for admitting new members, we will need to review our by-laws to be sure that all procedures are followed. For this meeting, Melissa motioned that Nancy Weaver be admitted, Keith rupp seconded the motion, and the motion carried unanimously. Re: joining with a capital balance in addition to the $100 monthly contribution. Pending review of the by-laws, Frank can create a number required; we called the calculation the current median net asset value of partner’s shares. Meeting Logistics: It was agreed that investment club meetings, with the purpose of investing as primary focus, shall include members and guests in attendance. Babies, as wonderful as they are, shall not be in attendance. Treasurer’s Report: Frank reported that last month was a hard month on our portfolio return, which had been making headway against the tide. All members are up-top-date with their contributions. The books have been balanced for year-end, although statements from M&I bank are still something of a mystery. Our formal records continue to go to a PO Box in Fountain Hills; Frank needs to check with Heather to see if this is still the appropriate address for club business to be sent to. The 2001 tax forms are done for each partner, but unless the partner included their SSN and address on the Bivio account, Frank needs to get that information before distributing their K1. For further information on the treasurers report, see bivio.com archives.
The Big Picture: Melissa attended an investment update today, and shared some interesting observations and conclusions that may impact our choices of stock in the coming 2-3 years. It was noted that in 2001, while the S&P 500 posted a –12% return, small cap stocks (as proxied by the Russell 2000) returned a positive 2.5%. There are investors who believe that, unless you catch the initial run up in small stocks, you have missed the boat. Foothills Asset Management (the sponsors of today’s program) do not agree, and believe that the next 2-5 years will be more favorable for small to mid cap stocks, well beyond the S&P 500 stocks. The primary rationale has to do with PE ratios and the current environment for profit for most large cap American companies. Foothills managers believe the recession officially declared in Nov 2000 is either over, or very close to over, citing rising leading indicators, rising purchasing managers index, rising manufacturing orders, and falling unemployment claims. However, they do not see factors encouraging a rapid and robust recovery, rather a slow, anemic, but steady recovery through 2002, with a likely national growth of GDP at around 2.5 to 3%. They believe interest rates are more likely to rise in the next year, although with substantial inflationary indicators, not dramatically. For clients in bond investments, they are recommending fairly short maturity dates and high quality issuers. They believe the outlook for stocks is bullish, but not robust. Based upon historical norms for PE ratios and earnings outlooks, their target for the S&P over the next 5-10 years is 1465-2119 (now currently at around 1100), so hardly a raging period for appreciation. The actual anticipated return would be 5-8% annually. One major current concern for stock market resilience is the Enron accounting issues and resulting bankruptcy, in addition to several other recent examples (Tyco, Global Crossing…) In contrast, small and mid cap stocks are more close to their historical “fairly” valued norms, and have less exposure to currency fluctuations and large scale accounting irregularities. Some names to consider: Wendy’s, Centex, Fastenall, Outback Steakhouse, Mylan Labs, and DentSupply. Portfolio Discussion: Southwest: Reported a profit for 2001, revenue and passenger miles are holding up just fine, stock price has rebounded nicely, especially in consideration of other airline stocks. Management transition since Herb Kelleher left appears to be stable and able. TFS: Stock price is down, as are earnings. A negative earnings announcement today. Acquisition of Colorado Micro Displays (near eye technology) completed for far less than initially anticipated. Maintain position. TBL: Teresa still confounded by low stock price (as is Melissa). After some contemplation, as we still believe this is a fundamentally good stock, now getting recognized as such in, for example, Forbes magazine list of undervalued stocks, Teresa motioned that we consider buying MORE TBL. Pending a second look, this motion will be visited at the next meeting. DBD: Still showing solid earnings, however, price has fallen over last two months as security stocks have settled after 9/11. Melissa needs to check into success of recently reported new contracts with Bank of America for ATM servicing. PNW: Some worries on the production side, since so many new power plants, construction started in the last two years, are about to come online, competing with PNW power production units to sell power to APS. However, with the demographics of Arizona, very solid earnings results, and stable management, the stock price is still very solid and this remains a good hold. NBR: Newest holding, it has weakened some since we purchased it, but still performing better than others in the industry. Accounting scandals might have hurt less solid balance sheets in the energy industry after Enron, but Nabors has been very resilient. MRK: Still off substantially from our purchase price, largely due to investor worries about the number of their products losing patent protection in the next year. However, management intends for Merck to remain independent, not be acquired by or merged with another entity, and thus is moving aggressively to shore up the stock price by arranging for the divestment of Merck Medco (the prescription/pharmacy subsidiary). Analysts seem to like the strategy; but the details of the spin off will determine how much value Merck shareholders see from the transaction. Hold. Second Look Buys: Alcoa: Melissa had time to look at alcoa and feel somewhat positive about the company, but not enough time to research fully enough to follow through with a buy recommendation. She asked for another presentation slot next month; latest point of interest in the industry is the just announced bankruptcy of Kaiser Aluminum, a major competitor. The question: will this be an opportunity for Alcoa, or is the portending the general state of the aluminum industry? First Look Buys: Pfizer: Diane introduced research into Pfizer (currently trading around $30/share, PE ratio of 33). Pfizer, if we like it enough to buy it, should be considered a growth stock, so we would look to the prospects for continuing strong growth of earnings. The stock price has been very stable over the ups and downs of the market in the last year. Their revenue is largely dependent upon pharmaceuticals, but spread over several names (Lipitor, Zoloft, Celebrex, Viagra), all with strong market share in growing demographics. The pipeline holds as many as 15 new medicines slated for introduction over the next 5 years, including some very pertinent for diabetes. Their earnings are largely concentrated in the big name drugs above (79%), but they are completing a merger with Warner Lambert. Diane does recommend we buy the stock. Current concerns: at this PE ratio, it must be a growth stock philosophy; should we set a price target for purchase, or quantify more fully the earnings potential? Also, FDA just nicked Pfizer for certain sales practices, including advertisements and presentations to physician conferences ahead of drug approval….
• Frank will explore money market alternatives for cash balances until assets are more fully
• Keith will take a second look at Timberland.
• Teresa will take a second look at Pfizer.
• Melissa will complete the second look at Alcoa, and first look at DentSupply.
N° : ………………………………………………………. VETERINARY HEALTH CERTIFICATE IN RESPECT OF DOGS FOR EXPORT TO THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA CERTIFICAT SANITAIRE POUR L'EXPORTATION DE CHIENS VERS L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ISSUING AUTHORITY / AUTORITE COMPETENTE: Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche / Direction des Services Vétérinaires de …………
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