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POPULATION FORECASTING – A VERY NECESSARY EXERCISE
TO UNDERTAKE
Department of Demography and Geodemography, Abstract
This paper briefly illustrates the relation of the current demographic situation with inevitable changes expecting population of Kazakhstan in coming several decades. Also it considers the role and necessity of population forecasts in informing current and future policy issues and needs that would be met by having available forecasts at least by basic characteristics. The results of the main institutions’ forecasts are depicted and analyzed the reasons of their divergence. Besides, the demographic data collection system of the country is described as well as an importance of uncertainty expression related to the difficulties of forecasting vital rates’ trends. Some forecasting methods and theoretical foundations are then Key words: population forecasting, Kazakhstan, demographic situation
Present demographic situation in Kazakhstan becomes more and more fundamental in determining the prospects of the socio-economic development, political stability and national security. Due to the current age and sex structure and because of the swiftly spreading attitude of “egoistical individualism” among young generations the population of Kazakhstan is most likely to decline in the coming decades. The rise of the birth rate which we are witnessing nowadays is just the population momentum of the so called “Baby Boom” of the 60’s. In 10-15 years the “small” generations of the transition period will reach the childbearing age concurrently the most part of the first wave of baby-boomers will be at retirement age combined with changing attitudes and system of values that Kazakhstan will inevitably face population ageing and fall of the total population size. In such circumstances the development of socio-economic policies and measures that will help to reduce the negative effects of coming changes of the size and age composition of Kazakhstani population requires deep and systematic study. And any amendments in policies and strategies related to production and consumption of goods and services, social infrastructure, housing, health care and pension systems, education etc. are impossible without knowledge of future demographic situation in the country. Population forecasting is one of the constituent elements of planning and decision-making. It allows us to identify the possible shifts in socioeconomic development and plays an important role in the evaluation of long-term plans Forecasting future population size and structure is one of the most important tasks of any national statistics. Population forecasting usually may differ in its time horizon, geographic coverage, methods applied and its use. Geographic coverage can range from local areas like counties or cities to the entire world. Local-area forecasting tends to use shorter time horizons, typically less than 10 years, whereas national forecasting can extend decades into future. Usually a small region forecasting includes such characteristics as educational and labour force composition, urban residence, or household type. In contrast, forecasts made for longer terms typically output more limited number of variables, primarily population broken down by age The diversity of types of forecasts is driven by the diversity of users' needs [1]. Commercial organizations often use forecasts for marketing research and generally want population classified by socioeconomic categories such as income and consumption habits (in addition to age and sex) and by place of residence. Government planners may be concerned with population aging and its potential social and economic impact. They may therefore desire longer-term forecasts, and want to know more about the health status and living arrangements of the elderly [2]. However an application of population forecasts in planning and decision making activities by institutions related to social, economic and political fields is not yet wide- spread in Kazakhstan like in other countries. This could relate to the fact that although the Agency on Statistics of Kazakhstan is decennially conducts nationwide Censes of Population but it does not carry out any official forecasts. There are only several individuals making forecasts but none of these persons could meet the current and future needs in qualitative and accurate population forecasts in Kazakhstan. Figure 1 – Population Projections Kazakhstan
There are four main institutions producing population forecasts for nearly all of the world’s main countries, including Kazakhstan, and disseminating their results - the United Nations (UN), United States Census Bureau (USCB), the World Bank (WB), and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). For instance, according to the UN’s forecasting, population of Kazakhstan will reach 17,244 million in 2030 whereas for the same period the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Data Base offers markedly different result - The reasons of such a significant difference in the results could lie in methods applied by the institutions, in accuracy of data or in population used as a base but the main point is that except giving general descriptions of their methodology, neither UN nor the USCB provide a detailed accounting of the reasoning underlying the specific assumptions made for different countries and regions of the world. In general terms, the UN arrives at scenarios for future trends in vital rates through the use of in house expertise, supplemented by consultation with groups of experts that are occasionally convened to discuss specific topics [2]. There are various methods available in literature for forecasting population e.g. ratio method, trend extrapolation method, component method and so on. Some are very sophisticated and rigorous while others are simpler, certainly each method has its own advantages and disadvantages and its use is primarily determined by the availability of data and peculiarities of National population forecasts are usually done with what is called the cohort-component model in which, the components of population change (fertility, mortality, and net migration) are forecasted separately for each birth cohort (persons born in a given year) [3]. The base population is advanced each year by using forecasted survival rates and net migration by single year of age, sex, and a place of residence. Each year, a new birth cohort is added to the population by applying the forecasted fertility rates. The cohort-component method is distinguished, as was previously mentioned, by its ability to preserve knowledge of an age distribution of a population over time. In its simplest statement, the component method is mathematically can be expressed by the following (t+n) = P(t) + Bt
P(t+n) = Population at the end of the period (at time t+n) P(t) = population at the beginning of the period (at time t) = births during the period (time t to t+n) = deaths during the period (time t to t+n) = in-migration during the period (time t to t+n) = out-migration during the period (time t to t+n) Components of population change are forecasted separately, and applied to equation (1) to produce a series of populations. The cohort-component method is now the most widely used of the analytical methods for preparing population forecasts. Population forecasting is an important element of a comprehensive long-term socio- economic development planning. The history of population forecasting was largely determined by the practical needs and requirements of a various state agencies and government for population data who understand the role of demographic factors in the development of the society and also by the level of scientific researches in the economical, statistical and The attempts of Kazakhstan to develop its economy and to modernize the society and the state in order to enter the group of 50 countries with most competitive economies in the world are leading to the growth of interest in the use of reliable, timely and relevant demographic and socioeconomic data for decision-making and planning. The National Statistical Agency is the main institution responsible for collecting, analyzing, publishing, and disseminating official socio economic statistics in Kazakhstan. The demographic data collection system in the country is based on the registration of events and periodic censuses. The data on births and deaths are registered at the local administrative level of an internal passport control system while migration data are obtained as a result of processing of the documents supplied by the internal affairs bodies and containing statistical records of arrivals and departures, these being compiled regularly at the time of registration of the Gathering of the data and checking on the correctness and quality is the responsibility of the district or municipal statistical sections. Then the data are submitted to the oblast statistical departments once a month. Data entry on the database, including coding, checking and sorting, is performed monthly in the oblast statistical departments. The primary database file, once processed (coded and sorted), is forwarded to the Information Computing Centre of the Quality of data is considered to be a function of the process of data collection, storage, and analysis. Some aspects of data quality in Kazakhstan such as timeliness, reliability and accessibility, are still appears to be problematic however the overall quality of the data have improved considerably since the demise of the Soviet system, Kazakhstan has increased the availability and level of detail of the demographic statistics. The fundamental principle of producing an accurate population forecast is a usage of high quality data on major demographic components of a population such as births, deaths, and migration. The forecast of these components is driven by the composition of the population by age, sex and sometimes place of residence and also by the way these variables determine the propensity to bear children, die, and migrate to or from the country. The determination of the initial population characteristics such as size, age structure, and vital rates are also crucial in forecasting population. The knowledge of the current age-sex composition influences future age-sex distribution through the components of change which can be accordingly differentiated by age and sex, besides, sometimes disaggregation of the population by urban/rural place of residence is also important because population by these categories are distinct with respect to rates of fertility and mortality in many countries including Provided that there has been given enough effort, the characteristics of the jump-off population can be known with sufficient accuracy, however correctness of the forecasted future trends of vital rates is always questionable that is why several scenarios must be developed in order to express uncertainties and forecasting of these vital events should be done with consideration of the historical trends, current socioeconomic situation and certainly theories explaining the determinants of occurring changes in vital rates. In general as a main theoretical base which may explain fertility and mortality changes and trends could be taken the concept of the demographic transition. As a part of the process of modernization, it has been observed that countries advance from a situation of relatively low population growth produced by the coexistence of high levels of fertility and high levels of mortality to a new state where both fertility and mortality levels are low. Such process is usually called the demographic transition. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years. The transition usually involves four stages, or possibly five (see Figure 2). In stage one in pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by carrying water, firewood, and messages, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes, preparing food, and doing some work in the fields. Figure 2 – The demographic transition model including stages
The second stage leads to a fall in death rates and an increase in population. The changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th century and were initially quite slow. In the 20th century, the falls in death rates in developing countries A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is a rapid rise of population growth rate (a "population explosion") as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. Note that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths. This change in population occurred in north-western Europe during the 19th century due to the Industrial Revolution. During the second half of the 20th century less-developed countries entered Stage Two, creating the worldwide population explosion that has demographers The stage tree in which the birth rate begins to fall whilst there is already a low death rate as well leading to a slight increase in population. The reason for the fall in births may be due to family planning, better education, lower infant mortality rate, a more industrialised way of life and the want for more material possessions as well as women being able to go out to work. The resulting changes in the age structure of the population include a reduction in the youth dependency ratio and eventually population aging. During the period between the decline in youth dependency and rise in old age dependency there is a demographic window of opportunity that can potentially produce economic growth through an increase in the ratio of working age to dependent population; the demographic dividend. The stage four occurs where birth and death rates are both low. Therefore the total population is high and stable. Some theorists consider there are only 4 stages and that the population of a country will remain at this level. The DTM is only a suggestion about the future population levels of a country. It is not a prediction. The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages; however, some theorists consider that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries that have sub-replacement fertility. Most European and many East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rates. Figure 3 - The state of the demographic transition in Kazakhstan: crude birth and death
rates, natural growth (CBR and CDR, NG) between 1940 and 2003s.
Sources: Aliev and Kadyraliev (1980), Goskomstat Kazakhskoy SSR and the Demographic Yearbook (2008) As with all models, this is an idealized picture of population change. The model is a generalization that applies to the countries as a group and may not accurately describe all individual cases. The detailed path followed by a particular country will depend on the magnitude of the disparity observed between the levels of fertility and mortality. The Kazakhstan’s path of the demographic transition is depicted in the Figure 3 and briefly could be described as follows. During the post-war decades Kazakhstan experienced a period of considerable natural growth which was quickly replaced by a period of moderate increase from 1970 until the dismantling of the USSR. After that, the rate of natural growth declined spectacularly however concurrently with economy natural growth has started to recover during the first few years of the new millennium. Summarizing all above stated we came to understanding that, for a wide range of policy, planning and research purposes it is of paramount importance for any country to develop the sphere of population forecasting. Furthermore, we strongly believe that the need in relevant and appropriately done forecasts will always exist and with this article we tried although very briefly but to give an insight into the process of population forecasting which will be produced also for Kazakhstan in our further work. References
1. Lutz, W., Goldstein, J.R., and Prinz, C. 1996a. Alternative approaches to population projections. In Lutz, W. (ed) The Future Population of The World: What Can We Assume Today? Earthscan Publication Ltd., London. pp. 14-44. 2. O'Neill et al 2001. A guide to global population projections. Demographic Research, Volume 4, Article 8, Pages 203-288. Published 13 June 2001 3. Field, et al, 1987 and Klosterman, et al, 1993. Cohort component method.

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